Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 · TEST MATCH
South Africa vs Australia 1st Test Prediction
SA vs AUS · who will win, pitch report & odds
South Africa
48% win probability
Projected day-one total
250-298:255-301
Australia
52% win probability
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026Series window, not a confirmed XI date
- 19:30 IST
- Kingsmead, Durban
- BALANCED / DRY
Quick answer
Quick answer
Australia are the 52% favourites to win the 1st Test against South Africa at Kingsmead. Our projection puts South Africa on 250-298 and Australia on 255-301, on a balanced / dry pitch that suits neither side in particular. The match starts Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST.
- Favourite
- Australia (52%)
- Format
- TEST MATCH
- Pitch suits
- Balanced
- Venue
- Kingsmead
Match prediction
SA vs AUS 1st Test: who will win?
Powerplay247's model leans Australia at 52% for this 1st Test at Kingsmead, Durban. The toss and the balanced / dry conditions will still move the live price, so treat 52% as a lean rather than a certainty.
Predicted winner
Australia
52% win probability
1st Test · TEST MATCH
South Africa win
48%
Australia win
52%
SA projected
250-298
AUS projected
255-301
Pitch and conditions
Kingsmead pitch report for SA vs AUS
Kingsmead is rated balanced / dry for this test match. No extreme in either direction, so session scoring should track close to the format average.
Venue
Kingsmead
Surface
BALANCED / DRY
Best suited to
Balanced
Day-one total
250-298 / 255-301
Toss call: The toss is close to neutral. Weigh up the two batting line-ups rather than the coin.
Projected scoreline
South Africa vs Australia projected score by phase
How the day-one total is expected to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface.
| Phase | South Africa | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Session 1 | 77-93 | 83-99 |
| Session 2 | 91-109 | 94-110 |
| Session 3 | 82-96 | 78-92 |
| Day-one total | 250-298 | 255-301 |
Players to watch
Key players in South Africa vs Australia
The names most likely to move the batter, bowler and player-runs markets in this test match. Final XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
- TS91Impact
Tristan Stubbs
Anchors the first innings
- MJ86Impact
Marco Jansen
Balances bat and ball
Australia
- JH86Impact
Josh Hazlewood
Hits a hard length
- AZ97Impact
Adam Zampa
Bowls the long spells
Betting notes
How to bet on SA vs AUS 1st Test
Four angles worth weighing before you place a bet on this fixture.
- 01
In a Test, the match moves session by session. Session-runs and next-wicket markets on South Africa vs Australia react faster than the overall result line.
- 02
Powerplay247 is an exchange, so you can back or lay every market on South Africa vs Australia. You can also trade out mid-match to lock in part of a profit.
- 03
Kingsmead plays balanced / dry. Price the day-one total in phases instead of backing a single full-innings number before the toss.
- 04
At 48-52, this is close to a coin flip. Tight Test markets usually swing hardest during the second session, so an early position with room to trade out makes sense.
Match card
South Africa vs Australia match details
- Series
- Australia tour of South Africa, 2026
- Match
- 1st Test (4 of 6)
- Date
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026
- Start
- 19:30 IST
- Venue
- Kingsmead, Durban
- Format
- TEST MATCH
- Series window
- Thu, 24 Sept 2026 - Sat, 31 Oct 2026
- Series format
- 3 ODIs | 3 Tests
Match preview
South Africa meet Australia in the 1st Test of Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 at Kingsmead, Durban. As match 4 of 6 in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, it follows on directly from the form of the last game. South Africa are at home, and home conditions are already built into the numbers. Our projection has South Africa scoring 250-298 and Australia 255-301, with Australia ahead at 52%. Treat that as a lean, not a lock: the toss and the first hour at Kingsmead will move the live price on Powerplay247.
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Read moreFrequently asked questions
6 questions
SA vs AUS 1st Test: who will win?
Powerplay247's model makes Australia favourites at 52%, with South Africa on 48%. That is based on team strength, venue history and a balanced / dry pitch at Kingsmead. It is a projection, not a guarantee, so check the live price before placing a bet.
What is the pitch report for Kingsmead?
Kingsmead, Durban is rated balanced / dry for this Test, which suits neither side in particular. That is why South Africa are projected at 250-298 and Australia at 255-301. The pitch usually moves the totals and the second session markets more than the match-winner price.
When and where is South Africa vs Australia?
The 1st Test is scheduled for Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST at Kingsmead, Durban, as part of Australia tour of South Africa, 2026. Dates follow the series calendar and can change, so confirm with the board's official schedule on match day.
Who should bat first at Kingsmead if they win the toss?
The toss is close to neutral. Weigh up the two batting line-ups rather than the coin. On a balanced / dry surface, the toss will move the the second session and totals markets more than the headline odds.
Which markets are best for this Test?
Session runs, first-innings lead and next-wicket markets. In a Test at Kingsmead, those move far more than the result line, especially after the first session.
Where does the 1st Test fit in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026?
It is match 4 of 6, so recent form is already in Australia's 52% line. Any momentum swing from the last game is where value can appear.
Still have a question? Our support team answers on WhatsApp.
Ask on WhatsAppPredictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Powerplay247's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and live prices on the exchange are the only prices that settle. For adults of legal age only; set limits and play responsibly.